Narrative of the gun

Nero would have been proud.

As Karachi burns, politicians continue to play the harp. The grotesque dance of death over the remains of Karachi's dead seems the final insult to their memory. They died for nothing more than the political brinkmanship of those they voted into power.

I'm not sure which is worse: the sheer hypocrisy of the ruling troika in Sindh, or their audacious attempt to insult the collective intelligence of Pakistanis. How else would you describe the inane political activity in the name of restoring peace to Karachi.

Peace? You’ve got to be kidding. There's a veritable urban war raging in the metropolis for no other reason than gaining control of the city – or at least a sizeable share of it. This much is well known, but what is astounding is how in this day and age of instant communication, the three stakeholders – PPP, MQM and ANP – can continue to play charades and think they can get away with it. Three years and a thousand deaths later, everybody still pretends not to know who the so-called target killers are. This has to be the worst kept secret in the world.

Here's why: Karachi's population is nearing 20 million. The city has 20 National Assembly seats. It remains the engine of Pakistan's economic growth. It is the only really true and authentic urban metropolis of Pakistan, a potpourri of more than 60 ethnic groups. American scholar Stephen Cohen has compared Karachi to New York, only if Karachi learns to live at peace with itself. Since the 1980's MQM has dominated Karachi's politics due to the sheer number of Urdu-speaking residents of this city. With Karachi under its firm control, MQM has negotiated political power in the Centre, and done so successfully under all regimes.

But not anymore.

The growing influx of Pushtuns in Karachi has changed the demographics of the metropolis. First came the weight of numbers, then the weight of arms, and now the demand for corresponding political power. They too want their share in the political spoils of the city.

And so does Asif Ali Zardari. All three parties now have their eyes on the prize and their finger on the trigger. Karachi is up for grabs. The loser gets to be – dead.

But here dead men do tell tales. These tales paint a picture eerily resembling Beirut, or Mogadishu. Such tales have a faint echo of cities falling apart; of urban warfare decimating the shaky foundations of ethnic balance and mating the flame with the powder keg. Karachi is now weaving together such a tale, because the city fathers have chosen deliberately to speak through the barrel of the gun.

This narrative of the gun resounds louder than the meaningless verbiage sprouting out of official mouths. Every clown-about-town is peddling solutions which have no bearing to reality as defined in Karachi's descent into mayhem. Empower the police, send in the Rangers or the Frontier Constabulary, call a meeting in Governor's House, call in the army, deweaponise the city, blah, blah and more blah.

None of these is the solution. It never was. But no one speaks of the solution. No one dare say in public what all admit in private. No one wants to acknowledge the elephant in the room. But here it is – tusks and all – staring us in the face: Karachi is being firebombed by the same people who are entrusted with protecting it. So who's going to protect it from the protectors?

This is where the tale begins to get hazy. The PPP, MQM and ANP are slugging it out. MQM sees this battle in existential terms. They say they will never allow themselves to be pushed into the Arabian Sea. ANP claims – and perhaps accurately so – that Karachi now is the largest Pushtun city in the world, eclipsing Peshawar and Kabul in terms of the numbers of Pushtuns residing there. And PPP wants in on the Karachi turf, with all the booty that it offers. All three have votes; all three have guns – big, loud guns – and all three are playing for keeps.

Solutions, anyone? Send in the army? Uncheck. Carve up the city? Uncheck. Call an All Parties Conference? Uncheck. Let the voter decide? Maybe. Come elections, there will be a loss of power for some, and gain for others. But it is the road leading to elections which is the real issue. There's the much-delayed Census which is now under way, and which will produce a preliminary report by January 2012. The data will determine the new demographics of Karachi, and probably unleash a new firestorm. Once the Census data is in, the Election Commission will kickstart the delimitation of constituencies. In Karachi, the shifting of a single union council from one constituency to the next can result in a massive change of electoral dynamics in that constituency. If such an exercise is politically motivated, all hell can break loose.

These are all political problems. The army or the police, or FC or Rangers cannot solve them. The solution is there for all to see. The three stakeholders hold the key, and the latest report from the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan says exactly this. The firemen and firestarters are essentially one and the same.

Nero would have been proud.